alex avoigt
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alex avoigt: As long as there is no well-developed...
As long as there is no well-developed plan for disarming 🇮🇷 Iran's roughly one million soldiers—whether from within, from without, or through a combination of both- I doubt that a successful regime change in Iran has any chance. Regime change cannot be achieved through airstrikes, nor through bombing the ruling powers, since new rulers can be appointed faster than the 🇺🇸 US and 🇮🇱 Israeli forces can bomb them. The destruction of military centers, complexes, and headquarters may look impressive on video, but in a decentralized organization like Iran, it doesn't solve the fundamental problem of a large regime that would do anything to stay in power and has prepared for this. The targets for strategic strikes will quickly run out, but the destruction caused by Shahed drones in neighboring countries is very unlikely to. Even worse the ability of the regime to carry out a massacre of the population if the Iranian people go to the streets to demonstrate or demand freedom is remains fully intact. As a result the political pressure on Trump to end the bombing will increase. The US and IDF will successfully reduce and weaken the Iranian regime's military capabilities in the region, but regime change, which should be the actual goal of this war, is only possible if the US and/or IDF invade with ground troops. Given the political and economic pressure, this is highly unlikely. IMO, Trump will do what he always does: quickly lose patience, declare victory, and chicken out.
04, February